Credit Spread-Yield Curve Cycle: All Eyes on the Fed in 2018 & Beyond

Credit Spread-Yield Curve Cycle: All Eyes on the Fed in 2018 & Beyond

By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

Highlights

  • U.S. in the mid-to-late stage of expansion post Great Recession
  • Fed ‘dot plot’ tightening pace could flatten yield curve, widen credit spreads
  • Could lead U.S. economy into a recession around 2020 or 2021
  • Slower pace of tightening could cause expansion to last much longer
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