Yield Curve – Unemployment Feedback Loop

The Yield Curve – Unemployment Feedback Loop

By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

Highlights

  • The yield curve has a cyclical relationship with unemployment
  • A flat yield curve typically precedes rising unemployment
  • Yield curve currently not signaling a recession in the near term
  • U.S. unemployment could dip towards 3%, dependent on rate hikes
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