The Yield Curve – Unemployment Feedback Loop

By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

Highlights

The yield curve has a cyclical relationship with unemployment
A flat yield curve typically precedes rising unemployment
Yield curve currently not signaling a recession in the near term
U.S. unemployment could dip towards 3%, dependent on rate hikes

Total Cost Analysis Focus Drives Record IR Futures Liquidity

The trends identified in our 2016 whitepaper, The New Treasury Market Paradigm, gained significant momentum in 2017 as investors increasingly turned to futures for liquid, capital-efficient, off-balance-sheet Treasury exposure.

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The Yield Curve – Unemployment Feedback Loop

By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

Total Cost Analysis Focus Drives Record IR Futures Liquidity