2021: Commodity risks and China’s growth sustainability

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Commodity risks and China’s growth sustainability in 2021

By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

From Inflation to Weather, Challenges for Commodities

  • Gold market to monitor potential for inflation pressure in 2021.
  • Copper prices likely to hinge on Chinese, global economic growth.
  • Oil will track for signs of recovery in demand as US shale output tightens.
  • Soybeans face La Niña threat that could cause drought in South America.
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China Still the Engine of Global Growth?

  • A K-shaped growth in China might reflect sector disparities.
  • Industrial sector is booming but services sector might be slack.
  • Big increase in debt-to-GDP ratio could signal lackluster growth.
  • Pace of China’s growth often impacts commodities, currencies.
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