Research: Brexit’s inflation dilemma

Brexit’s inflation dilemma By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group No-deal Brexit could stoke UK inflation As Brexit politics grabs headlines, UK inflation is caught in the crossfire No-deal Brexit could sink pound by 10%, elevate inflation rate by 1% Nearly 25% of UK consumer goods are imported, could see price hikes Bank of England … Read More

Measuring and managing event risk

Measuring and managing event risk By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights Trade war poses an event risk that can have two conflicting outcomes Escalation of dispute weighs on equities, ceasefire helps rally the market Measuring this type of risk might need more than bell-curve techniques Solution could be to use options volume, volatility, … Read More

Stormy fall affects Energy, Ags – and is Mexico about to stumble?

Stormy fall affects Energy, Ags – and is Mexico about to stumble? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group LATAM FX: High-Flyer Mexico To Fall Off Its Perch? Monetary policy, inverted yield curve point to possible Mexican recession Brazil, Chile and Colombia growth could decelerate later this year or early 2020 US … Read More

Equities bear the brunt of the trade war

Equities bear the brunt of the trade war By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights Protracted trade war impacting the equity market more than the economy Corporate sector absorbing tariffs in trade war to protect market share Companies unable to pass tariffs onto consumers due to stiff online competition No recession in sight as … Read More

Trade War: Everything has changed

View in your browser Trade War: Everything has changed By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights Equities hit hardest by trade war as tariffs cut into companies’ profit margins Companies have lost pricing power, absorbing tariffs to maintain market share Did market forces weaken the Chinese yuan or was it a managed depreciation? A … Read More