OPEC Decides to Raise Output: How Will U.S. Shale React?

View in your browser OPEC Decides to Raise Output: How Will U.S. Shale React? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Video Highlights Post-OPEC price gains to encourage increased shale production Production constraints could delay arrival of much of the shale oil until 2019 Fledgling trade war could put U.S. oil exports to China at … Read More

Factors Likely to Shape Fed’s Interest Rate Path in H2 2018

Factors Likely to Shape Fed’s Interest Rate Path in H2 2018 By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Video Highlights Fed could hike rates at least once in H2 2018 as core inflation edges up A second rate increase in H2 is possible but dependent on inflation data Fed aiming for ‘rate neutrality,’ when fed funds rate … Read More

Rising Political Event Risk, Falling Ag Currencies Could Move Markets

Rising Political Event Risk, Falling Ag Currencies Could Move Markets By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Political Event Risk Raises Stakes for Sudden Price Moves Highlights Rising political event risk could gyrate equity, FX, bond and ag markets Elections in U.S., Mexico, Brazil; NAFTA, Brexit talks among the triggers Trade wars … Read More

Euro-USD in Tug-of-War, Recession Risk Rises as Yield Curve Flattens

Euro-USD in Tug-of-War, Recession Risk Rises as Yield Curve Flattens By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Euro-Dollar Caught in a Fiscal-Monetary Tug-of-War Highlights Euro-USD rate hemmed in by divergent monetary, fiscal policies Options indicate the euro faces greater downside than upside risk U.S. monetary policy could help push dollar higher over … Read More

Research: Our Model’s Forecasts for May and June Non-Farm Payrolls

Our Model’s Forecasts for May and June Non-Farm Payrolls By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights U.S. economy set to create jobs at robust pace in the months ahead Projection based on narrow credit spreads, steep yield curves over past few years A flat yield curve, higher oil prices could pose risk to job … Read More