Research: Oil risks, equity market drivers 2020

Research: Oil risks, equity market drivers 2020 By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Oil: Is Mideast risk premium too low? Oil prices surged but fell back after two recent Mideast incidents Risk premium much lower than $15-$20 before shale oil revolution Could dwindling capital expenditure lead to decline in … Read More

Global growth hotspots and commodities pin 2020 hopes on China

Global growth hotspots and commodities pin 2020 hopes on China By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Are major economies heading for a cool off? Flatness of yield curves signal slowing growth in US, Europe, Japan Steep yield curves for China, India, and Brazil point to growth Countries projected to grow have been easing monetary … Read More

Research: Equities roar as Fed eyes next challenge

As equities party like it’s 1999, is Fed ready for a downturn? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group In 2020, equities are partying like it’s 1999 The three sectors that led the market in the 1990s also won in 2010s The three weakest sectors in 1990s also did poorly … Read More

Watch now: Debt risk and yield curve growth nexus

Debt risk and yield curve growth nexus By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Rising debt a risk in 2020? Record-long US growth could extend into 2020 and beyond US-China trade war ceasefire eliminates a slow-down trigger Debt is rising faster than growth prospects in many sectors Could downplaying risk, … Read More

China 2020 outlook and will growth defy yield curve?

China 2020 outlook and will growth defy yield curve? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Will booming equities sustain economic growth? Is the flat yield curve signaling a slowdown in the economy in 2020? The yield curve has been wrong before, specifically between 1994 and 1999 Growth slowed in … Read More