Can VIX-Yield Curve Cycle Foretell Next Inflation? Jul 21, 2022 View in your browser Economic Cycles and Recession; the Jobs-Growth Disconnect By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Can VIX-Yield Curve Predict Next Recession? Four stages of the VIX-Yield curve starting with economic recovery and ending with a recession This cycle has played out three times from 1990 to 2021 Can this VIX-Yield curve cycle correctly predict the next recession? Highest inflation in 40 years has led Fed to aggressively tighten policy Read article Can Slow Growth Weaken Robust Labor Market? Job growth remains robust even as pace of economic growth slows down Job data likely to take precedent over GDP in Fed’s rate hike schedule Job market has returned to pre-pandemic peak with wages rising Slow labor force growth, low participation rates likely to keep labor market tight Watch video SEE MORE ANNOUNCEMENTS
