Delta Variant Impacts Markets; Dividend Futures and Inflation

CME Group
Economic Research

Delta Variant Impacts Markets; Dividend Futures and Inflation

By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist
Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group

Delta Impacts Markets, Economies
  • Reflation trade of higher bond yields on rising inflation reversed by Delta variant.
  • Some commodity markets, led by lumber, reverse earlier gains as variant spreads.
  • If virus variant dampens economic optimism, equities could become less attractive.
  • Is the Fed view that rising inflation is transitory gaining traction among investors?
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Dividend Futures as an Inflation Hedge
  • Dividend futures have been flat since 2017 even as S&P 500 climbed 91%.
  • Bond yields muted despite surge in inflation, strong economic growth.
  • During high-inflation 1970s, equities were nominally flat while dividends surged.
  • Could S&P 500 Dividend futures serve as a hedge if inflation continues to rise?
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