Interest rate gaps and two competing scenarios for the economy

CME Group
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Interest rate gaps and two competing scenarios for the economy

By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

Interest Rates Gaps for the US Dollar

  • CME FX Swap Rate Monitor measures implied interest rate differentials.
  • US rates appeared higher in FX markets than for seven other currencies.
  • US rates were higher than rates in eurozone, Canada, Australia, and Japan.
  • US rates were up to 30 points higher than central bank or OIS rates.
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Conflicting Scenarios for Growth

  • Conflicting expectations for economy to either snap back or set back.
  • October GDP data could raise hopes for a swift rebound.
  • Jobs data, however, could show continued layoffs, slowing recovery.
  • Inflation-sensitive gold, Treasuries focused on shape of recovery.
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