Jobs growth outlook, Fed eyes next move

Jobs growth outlook and how the Fed could be out of options

By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

Fed: Out of options

  • Fed’s efforts to stoke stubbornly low inflation have been futile
  • Inflation contained by demographics, online competition among businesses
  • Millennials can’t make up for baby boomers’ decline in retirement spending
  • Will expanding budget deficit of around $1 trillion be able to bolster inflation?
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The magic number for continued US jobs growth

  • Is decade-long growth in US jobs market heading for a reversal?
  • High-yield credit spreads indicate short-term jobs growth will remain positive
  • Flat yield curve could widen credit spreads, lead to fewer jobs being created
  • Jobs growth likely to slow down in late 2019 and 2020
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