Metals’ tug of war and changing expectations for dividends

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Metals’ tug of war and changing expectations for dividends

By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

Metals: Caught in a Supply-Demand Tug of War

  • Prices of most industrial metals have withstood shrinking growth.
  • Spread of the coronavirus led to mine closures, reduced demand.
  • Construction sector, China key to demand picking up post-pandemic.
  • Effects of pandemic on industrial metals could reverberate for years.
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Dividends: How Investor Expectations Have Changed With Equity Prices

  • Dividend expectations for 2020-2022 rebound 40-50% from April lows.
  • Investors less optimistic over dividend payments 2028 to 2030.
  • Divergence in expectations could be due to Fed’s growing balance sheet.
  • Could the Fed shrink balance sheet and raise short-term rates later this decade?
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