New prime minister set to face same Brexit challenges, pound uncertainty

New prime minister set to face same Brexit challenges, pound uncertainty

By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

Brexit: Pound set for volatile fall after calm summer?

  • Options signal volatile fourth quarter for pound post-Brexit deadline
  • Could GBP fall 15% to below 1985 low of 1.05 vs USD if Brexit goes awry?
  • SONIA futures give up on BoE rate increase, pricing a rate cut next
  • Boris Johnson set to become next UK Prime Minister
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Brexit: Will new broom sweep clean?

  • Britain gets new prime minister but Brexit roadblocks remain the same
  • England’s overwhelming vote to leave the EU is linked to sovereignty
  • Will next PM Boris Johnson be able to cut an EU deal acceptable to all quarters?
  • There is a strong possibility of Britain holding fresh elections this fall
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Brexit: A nervous pound

  • Investors nervous over British pound ahead of Oct 31 Brexit deadline
  • Options implied volatility for October trading at a relatively high 12%
  • It translates to a likely surge in volatility for the pound’s spot rate
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