Policy Impacts on Equities, Economy; Low Expectations for High Interest Rates

CME Group
Economic Research

Fiscal, Monetary Policy Impacts; Expectations for Interest Rates

By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist
Erik Norland, Senior Economist
CME Group

Will Ending QE Impact Stocks and Bonds?
  • Fiscal policy initiatives helped cushion pandemic’s disruption of economy.
  • Direct payments helped consumer spending recover sooner than during Great Recession.
  • Fed tapering of asset purchases not expected to impact economy or inflation.
  • Withdrawal of quantitative easing could impact equities and bonds over time.
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Will High Debt Put a Lid on Interest Rate Hikes?
  • Investors not expecting interest rates in U.S. and Europe to rise quickly.
  • Rates not expected to top 2% in U.S. through 2026, nor rise to zero in Europe till 2026 or later.
  • Investors seem to share central banks’ view that inflation might be transitory.
  • Debt levels that soared during pandemic could keep a lid on interest rates.
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