Recalculating inflation and possible scenarios for equities, rates and gold

Recalculating inflation and possible scenarios for equities, rates and gold

By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group

Are We Underestimating Real GDP Growth?

  • Is labor productivity growth actually as slow as suggested by data?
  • Tech advances making it more difficult to measure inflation rate
  • Goods provide more value, services are delivered at lower costs
  • If inflation is being overestimated, real GDP growth could be higher
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What’s Next for Interest Rates, Equities and Gold?

  • Fed could cut rates aggressively if unemployment spikes higher
  • Fed intervention in repo market is not quantitative easing
  • Trade war tariffs stand in the way of corporate-profit growth
  • Gold’s 2020 trend cloudy, hinges on Fed’s decisions on rates
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