Research: Global yield curves, US consumer debt in focus

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Global growth outlook and are US consumers overextended?

By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

Are US consumers overextended?

  • Delinquencies in credit card debt, car loans have risen in recent years
  • Student loan, mortgage repayments have been relatively stable
  • High US debt levels no threat to continued economic growth
  • Decade-long expansion likely to continue at around 2% per annum
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What global yield curves signal about 2020 growth

  • Yield curves point to growth accelerating in China, India, Brazil in 2020
  • These countries have been cutting interest rates or boosting liquidity
  • Yield curves signal economic slowdowns in US, eurozone and Japan
  • Did quantitative easing distort the yield curves in US, Europe and Japan?
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