Research: Shifts in volatility and US corn dominance

Shifts in volatility and US corn dominance

By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

Is higher volatility making a comeback?

  • Options on US equities might be signaling a nascent trend to higher volatility
  • Volatility in bonds, grains, gold and silver appear to be on the rise as well
  • Copper volatility has been restrained despite escalating trade war, price drop
  • US monetary policy has typically been the underlying cause for higher volatility
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Is US corn belt losing hold over crop prices?

  • Corn, wheat have displayed a spring-summer rally-bust cycle since 2014
  • Pattern could be tied to growing geographical diversity in crop production
  • Black Sea region, South America challenge US dominance in corn exports
  • Wheat exports, once dominated by US, now ruled by Black Sea region
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