Research: The Brexit Saga and Equity Select Sector Drivers

The Brexit Saga and Equity Select Sector Drivers

By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

Will Brexit Derail the Conservative Party?

  • Tories deeply divided over Brexit terms, could be trounced in next election
  • Conservative Party split over crashing out of EU or negotiating a trade deal
  • Could UK government be toppled over thorny Irish border issue?
  • Tenure of Theresa May’s successor as PM could be short-lived due to Brexit
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Forces That Drive Equity Select Sectors

  • After moving higher together, equity select sectors have diverged since late 2014
  • Fed tightening, extreme moves in energy prices were behind their divergence
  • 1% rise in inflation expectations could sink utilities, real estate, consumer staples
  • Strong dollar could hurt energy and materials sectors, but would be neutral to tech
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