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Impacts of potential stimulus package

By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

Will Fed Underwrite Another Stimulus?

  • Fed supports additional fiscal spending despite widening budget deficit.
  • Position is a reversal of Fed’s stance in the 1980s, 1990s.
  • Fresh stimulus spending could raise budget deficit by up to 30% of GDP.
  • Will Fed absorb new stimulus debt with more quantitative easing?
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Could Stimulus Raise Bond Yields?

  • Stimulus package could impact bond yields, gold, and stocks.
  • If Fed does not absorb large chunk of stimulus debt, yields could rise.
  • Higher bond yields could lead investors away from equities, gold.
  • Implied volatility on long-term bonds has risen from recent lows.
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