Stormy fall affects Energy, Ags – and is Mexico about to stumble?

Stormy fall affects Energy, Ags – and is Mexico about to stumble?

By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

LATAM FX: High-Flyer Mexico To Fall Off Its Perch?

  • Monetary policy, inverted yield curve point to possible Mexican recession
  • Brazil, Chile and Colombia growth could decelerate later this year or early 2020
  • US growth could slow to 1-1.5% due to trade war, flat yield curve, monetary policy
  • Weaker Latin American currencies may foreshadow further declines in renminbi
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Stormy Fall

  • Hurricane season set to be stormy amid rising ocean temperatures
  • Storms can disrupt oil production and exports from Gulf of Mexico
  • Early indications are for favorable corn planting weather in spring 2020
  • El Niño helped to constrain formation of hurricanes in June-August
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