The post-pandemic recovery scenarios

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The post-pandemic landscape and three stages of recovery

By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

Policy Analysis Through the Lens of Phase Transitions

  • Three phases in getting economy back on an even keel.
  • Supply-chain disruptions, worker layoffs mark first phase.
  • Economy then gets back to work as financial damage is assessed.
  • Rebuilding begins amid changes to consumer, corporate behavior.
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From Shopping to Dividends to Travel, Changes Likely

  • Savings rate rose after 2008 crisis despite low interest rates.
  • Individuals could similarly increase savings after pandemic.
  • As supply lines are reshaped, 3-D printing could get a boost.
  • Hotels, airlines could be affected if business travel declines.
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