The post-pandemic landscape and three stages of recovery

By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

Policy Analysis Through the Lens of Phase Transitions

• Three phases in getting economy back on an even keel.
• Supply-chain disruptions, worker layoffs mark first phase.
• Economy then gets back to work as financial damage is assessed.
• Rebuilding begins amid changes to consumer, corporate behavior.

From Shopping to Dividends to Travel, Changes Likely

• Savings rate rose after 2008 crisis despite low interest rates.
• Individuals could similarly increase savings after pandemic.
• As supply lines are reshaped, 3-D printing could get a boost.
• Hotels, airlines could be affected if business travel declines.