The Widening Emerging-Developed Market Gap

CME Group
Economic Research by Blu Putnam

The Widening Emerging-Developed Market Gap

By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

The Widening Emerging-Developed Market Gap

  • Fiscal stimulus in emerging markets has been much less robust than in the US and other Developed Nations.
  • Emerging markets can mitigate the damage of the pandemic through other means: currency devaluation and short-term interest rate cuts.
  • Large fiscal deficits in developed countries and smaller deficits in emerging markets could widen the divide between the two category of nations and their bond markets.
If interest rates were to fall in any emerging market, it might be in Brazil, where debt is climbing faster than in most other emerging market countries, and where fiscal stimulus might add more to budget deficits than appears likely in India, Mexico and Russia.

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