Trade war rewrites the script in commodities

Trade war rewrites the script in commodities

By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

Grains: Midsummer rallies turn to fall nightmares

  • Corn prices increasingly track Brazilian real, Russian ruble more than USD
  • Black Sea region, Brazil are now setting the marginal production cost globally
  • Prices are less reactive to inclement US weather as output overseas grows
  • Trade war could also impact corn, wheat as sliding yuan weakens real, ruble
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Gold, copper and oil go their separate ways

  • Gold, oil and copper’s long periods of synchronized moves can diverge abruptly
  • Gold is now more focused on US monetary policy than global dissonance
  • Watch copper for signals on global growth as trade war remains unresolved
  • Oil must contend with shale revolution, growing US exports and slowing growth
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