UK eyes rate cut, US inflation likely muted

UK eyes rate cut, US inflation likely muted

By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

SONIA: High time to lower rates

  • SONIA futures pricing 61% probability of BoE rate cut on Jan 30
  • Probability of a BoE rate cut jumps to 80% at its September meeting
  • UK unemployment is low at 3.8%, core inflation running below 2%
  • Economy is stagnating, consumer-spending growth has slowed
Read article

Not so terrible twos

  • US 2020 economic outlook is for growth, core inflation of around 2%
  • Forecasts for a recession often underestimate economy’s resilience
  • Old ideas on inflation seem to have overstayed their relevance
  • Inflation to stay muted unless government spending on goods, services surges
Watch video