UK eyes rate cut, US inflation likely muted Jan 29, 2020 UK eyes rate cut, US inflation likely muted By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group SONIA: High time to lower rates SONIA futures pricing 61% probability of BoE rate cut on Jan 30 Probability of a BoE rate cut jumps to 80% at its September meeting UK unemployment is low at 3.8%, core inflation running below 2% Economy is stagnating, consumer-spending growth has slowed Read article Not so terrible twos US 2020 economic outlook is for growth, core inflation of around 2% Forecasts for a recession often underestimate economy’s resilience Old ideas on inflation seem to have overstayed their relevance Inflation to stay muted unless government spending on goods, services surges Watch video SEE MORE ANNOUNCEMENTS