US Full Employment and Yuan’s Uncertain Path

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US Full-Employment Prospects and Surging Yuan’s Path Ahead

By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist
Erik Norland, Senior Economist
CME Group

Yuan Rises Amid US Demand for Chinese Goods

  • Yuan gained 10% against US dollar in 10 months through January 2021.
  • US demand for Chinese products helped fuel the yuan’s appreciation.
  • Demand could switch to US service sector as vaccination progresses.
  • Will yuan give back gains or will new factors support the currency?
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Can US Attain Full Employment by 2022?

  • ​​​March employment report showed robust jobs recovery.
  • Possibility of achieving full employment at end-2021 or 2022.
  • A return to full employment could normalize monetary policy sooner.
  • Fed fund futures point to a rate hike between April 2022-March 2023.
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