Watch now: Debt risk and yield curve growth nexus

Debt risk and yield curve growth nexus

By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

Rising debt a risk in 2020?

  • Record-long US growth could extend into 2020 and beyond
  • US-China trade war ceasefire eliminates a slow-down trigger
  • Debt is rising faster than growth prospects in many sectors
  • Could downplaying risk, extending asset price rallies be a risk?
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The yield curve-growth nexus

  • Are yield curves reliable indicators of economic growth?
  • We looked at countries comprising 88% of the global economy
  • All showed positive relationship with yield curve 6-15 months out
  • The probability of that happening is one in 8.3 million
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