Will Rate Cut Weaken Dollar, Sustain Decade-Long Growth?

Longest US Economic Expansion; If Dollar Weakens, Who Benefits?

By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group

If US Dollar Weakens, Who Benefits?

  • Is US dollar’s eight-year uptrend about to come to an end?
  • Growing trade and budget deficits, possible Fed rate cut could derail USD
  • Could British pound, undervalued due to Brexit chaos, rally over long term?
  • Swiss franc, yen and euro could stand to benefit if USD stumbles
  • Renminbi might track USD lower, Indian rupee might be a winner
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Record-Long US Economic Expansion

  • Decade-long US economic expansion is the longest on record
  • Economic expansions do not die of old age, but of policy mistakes
  • Trade war, possible debt default, government shutdown can disrupt growth
  • Slower growth expected in H2 2019, 2020 even with Fed rate cut
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