Jobs growth outlook, Fed eyes next move

Jobs growth outlook and how the Fed could be out of options By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Fed: Out of options Fed’s efforts to stoke stubbornly low inflation have been futile Inflation contained by demographics, online competition among businesses Millennials can’t make up for baby boomers’ decline in … Read More

Trade War: Adding up the costs

Trade War: Adding up the costs By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Consumers get tariff relief before holiday shopping season But tariffs will still amount to at least $50 billion on Sept 1 Another $30 billion in tariffs will be staggered between Sept 1 and Dec 15 US trade policy on China is … Read More

Pound’s bleak Brexit outlook and why tariffs are not shrinking trade deficit

Pound’s bleak Brexit outlook and why tariffs are not shrinking trade deficit By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Will pound test lows as Brexit looms? British pound has weakened considerably under Prime Minister Boris Johnson Declines are due to changing probabilities of Brexit outcome Pound could drop another 10-15% if there’s a ‘no-deal’ Brexit … Read More

Research: Shifts in volatility and US corn dominance

Shifts in volatility and US corn dominance By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Is higher volatility making a comeback? Options on US equities might be signaling a nascent trend to higher volatility Volatility in bonds, grains, gold and silver appear to be on the rise as well Copper volatility has been restrained despite escalating … Read More

Trade war rewrites the script in commodities

Trade war rewrites the script in commodities By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Grains: Midsummer rallies turn to fall nightmares Corn prices increasingly track Brazilian real, Russian ruble more than USD Black Sea region, Brazil are now setting the marginal production cost globally Prices are less reactive to inclement … Read More