Rising Political Event Risk, Falling Ag Currencies Could Move Markets

Rising Political Event Risk, Falling Ag Currencies Could Move Markets By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Political Event Risk Raises Stakes for Sudden Price Moves Highlights Rising political event risk could gyrate equity, FX, bond and ag markets Elections in U.S., Mexico, Brazil; NAFTA, Brexit talks among the triggers Trade wars … Read More

Euro-USD in Tug-of-War, Recession Risk Rises as Yield Curve Flattens

Euro-USD in Tug-of-War, Recession Risk Rises as Yield Curve Flattens By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Euro-Dollar Caught in a Fiscal-Monetary Tug-of-War Highlights Euro-USD rate hemmed in by divergent monetary, fiscal policies Options indicate the euro faces greater downside than upside risk U.S. monetary policy could help push dollar higher over … Read More

Research: Our Model’s Forecasts for May and June Non-Farm Payrolls

Our Model’s Forecasts for May and June Non-Farm Payrolls By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights U.S. economy set to create jobs at robust pace in the months ahead Projection based on narrow credit spreads, steep yield curves over past few years A flat yield curve, higher oil prices could pose risk to job … Read More

Futures to Remain in Backwardation Amid Mideast Tension

Oil: Futures to Remain in Backwardation Amid Mideast Tension By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Video Highlights Spot oil prices to remain high due to Mideast risk premium Futures to be in backwardation until Mideast tension eases U.S. shale producers set to expand production in 2018, 2019 In case you missed it… Read Blu Putnam’s article … Read More

Research: What’s Next for Oil Markets as Prices, Mideast Tensions Rise?

What’s Next for Oil Markets as Prices, Mideast Tensions Rise? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Oil: As Price Tops $70, Will Shale Producers Ramp Up Output? As crude oil prices top $70 per barrel amid escalating Mideast geopolitical risk premium, will shale producers ramp up output as they lock in prices? Listen to Podcast U.S. … Read More