China and the World Economy; Debt and Long-Term Rates

China and the World Economy; Debt, Deficits and Long-Term Rates By Erik Norland, Senior Economist K.T. Arasu, Director, Economic Research CME Group Could Slowing China Impact Global Growth? China’s economy has slowed, could be a drag on global growth Chinese yuan has weakened against dollar amid growth concerns Yuan’s strength is dependent on China’s pace … Read More

Risk of Stagflation; Inflation-Jobs Trade-Off

Rising Risk of Stagflation; Inflation-Jobs Trade-Off By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Rising Risk of Stagflation Growth can be impaired if consumer spending exceeds rate of inflation Withdrawal of fiscal, monetary stimulus could slow economic growth Rising wages and producer prices could cut into corporate profit growth Can the Fed … Read More

Investor Expectations and Labor Market Conundrum

Big Changes to Investor Expectations Investor expectations for 2022 inflation has risen from 3.5% to 5.6% Expectations for SOFR have doubled from 1.5% to 3% by mid-2023 FedWatch tool indicating a 50-basis point Fed rate hike on May 4 Investors expecting dividend growth in 2022 at 6.9%, up from 5% due to inflation Watch video … Read More

Corporate Profits and Copper’s Rally

View in your browser Reasons for Copper’s Rally; Headwinds for Corporate Profits Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Five Factors Fueling Copper’s Rise Copper prices are up 125% from lows of March 2020 Transition to electric vehicles boosting demand for copper China’s growth rebounded in the second half of 2020 after pandemic Copper supply has … Read More

Could Inflation Impede Growth?

View in your browser Could High Inflation Impede Growth? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist CME Group Could Inflation Affect Consumer Spending, Growth? Inflation could impact pace of growth, employment in 2022 U.S. has regained nearly all of the jobs lost during pandemic Growth can slow down if consumer spending falls below inflation rate No quick … Read More