Trade war to target Europe next? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights US could target Europe in next phase of trade war possibly in October New front on trade war would hurt auto sector in Alabama and South Carolina Faltering German economy, which relies on auto exports, could be hit hard Euro could fall … Read More
Spotting a recession & Equity market updates
How to spot a recession and what’s next for equities? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group How to spot a recession No US recession in sight, but bond market is getting worried Inverted yield curve could forerun a recession by up to two years In that time, rate cuts … Read More
Can negative rates spur growth? How Mexico could bolster the economy
Can negative rates spur growth? How Mexico could bolster the economy By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Can negative rates stimulate growth? Negative deposit rates since 2014 have not bolstered eurozone growth Last three rate cuts have strengthened, not weakened trade-weighted euro Stronger euro does not stimulate the economy or generate inflation Should Federal … Read More
Research: Brexit’s inflation dilemma
Brexit’s inflation dilemma By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group No-deal Brexit could stoke UK inflation As Brexit politics grabs headlines, UK inflation is caught in the crossfire No-deal Brexit could sink pound by 10%, elevate inflation rate by 1% Nearly 25% of UK consumer goods are imported, could see price hikes Bank of England … Read More
Measuring and managing event risk
Measuring and managing event risk By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights Trade war poses an event risk that can have two conflicting outcomes Escalation of dispute weighs on equities, ceasefire helps rally the market Measuring this type of risk might need more than bell-curve techniques Solution could be to use options volume, volatility, … Read More