Author: esanchez

The Brexit Saga and Equity Select Sector Drivers By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Will Brexit Derail the Conservative Party? Tories deeply divided over Brexit terms, could be trounced in next election Conservative Party split over crashing out of EU or negotiating a trade deal Could UK government be … Read More

U.S. Treasury Options Skews, Bond Rally Offer Signs on Economy’s Health By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Podcast: Treasury Options Skews Treasury options skews have been reliable market indicators since 2007 Treasuries have often underperformed when options are skewed to the downside, and vice versa Expectations of a Fed … Read More

Trade War: Lose-Lose Outcome? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights As U.S., China dig in, trade war could hurt businesses in both countries China’s fast-growing airline sector could shift demand to Europe Chinese demand shifts could also occur in energy, livestock sectors Are U.S. companies operating in China at risk of corporate retaliation? … Read More

Taking Cues from Oil Options Skews, U.S. and China Policy Impacts on Gold By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Oil: Are Options Skews Reliable Price Indicators? Out-of-the-money oil options skews signal fears of a slump 90% of the time Gasoline, ULSD markets also showing significant downside concerns Market slump fears are fueled by surging … Read More

Interpreting the U.S. Bond Rally By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights U.S. 10-Year Treasury yields have declined from 3.2% to 2.2% since Oct 2018 Are low yields a signal of a coming recession, or just decelerating growth? Subdued inflation is diminishing risk premium in bond yields Zero German and Japanese bond yields are pulling … Read More