EXCHANGE CORNER

China, Brazil and the Soybean Crush; Will Fiscal Stimulus Bolster Europe? By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group China, Brazil and the Soybean Crush Strong Chinese growth can propel soy oil prices higher over 12 months China’s economic expansion, however, can negatively impact soy meal A fast-growing, prosperous China can boost the consumption of soy … Read More

Factors Driving a Possible Fed Rate Cut in July By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Why Does the Fed Need to Cut Rates? Fed rate increases since 2015 have been the lowest cumulatively in past 5 cycles Ballooning debt levels, subdued inflation have put a lid on even higher rates … Read More

FX as a Trade War Tool? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights Chinese yuan has been sensitive to developments in the trade war Hidden policy agenda behind fluctuations in yuan vs US dollar? Yuan rises to 6.7 per USD when US-China trade deal seems likely Yuan hits ceiling of 7 per USD as tensions … Read More

Chinese Yuan: Beware of Boundaries By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights Chinese yuan’s value against dollar sways with level of trade war tension Yuan appreciates when US-China tensions ease, trade deal seems likely When prospects dim for US to lift import tariffs, yuan tends to depreciate Yuan seems to have a ceiling of seven … Read More

Copper’s Options Paradox and Three Signs Oil Prices Are Hitting Bottom By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Copper’s Options Paradox Copper options implied volatility is trading near record lows While copper prices track China’s growth, options follow US monetary policy Continued tight US monetary policy could elevate copper implied volatility If Fed decides to cut … Read More