As equities party like it’s 1999, is Fed ready for a downturn? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group In 2020, equities are partying like it’s 1999 The three sectors that led the market in the 1990s also won in 2010s The three weakest sectors in 1990s also did poorly … Read More
Watch now: Debt risk and yield curve growth nexus
Debt risk and yield curve growth nexus By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Rising debt a risk in 2020? Record-long US growth could extend into 2020 and beyond US-China trade war ceasefire eliminates a slow-down trigger Debt is rising faster than growth prospects in many sectors Could downplaying risk, … Read More
China 2020 outlook and will growth defy yield curve?
China 2020 outlook and will growth defy yield curve? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Will booming equities sustain economic growth? Is the flat yield curve signaling a slowdown in the economy in 2020? The yield curve has been wrong before, specifically between 1994 and 1999 Growth slowed in … Read More
Industrial metals hinge on China, Fed’s focus on money markets
Industrial metals hinge on China, and Fed’s focus on money markets By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Industrial metals’ demand hinges on China growth Iron ore, aluminum, steel, and copper output has doubled or tripled since 1990s China consumes 40-50% of aluminum, copper, and steel produced each year Demand … Read More
Research: Loonie paradox and distorted yield curve
Loonie paradox and how the budget deficit might distort the yield curve By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Loonie paradox: Does China drive Canada/US dollar rate? China exerts a stronger influence on CAD/USD exchange rate than US China’s sway felt through commodities, which comprise half of all Canadian exports Is Canadian household, corporate debt … Read More