EXCHANGE CORNER

Policy Responses and Outcomes to Great Recession and Pandemic By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist ,CME Group Lessons from 2008 and 2020 ​​​​​​Great Recession began September 2008, equities recovery started in March 2009. Real GDP reached pre-recession peak in Q1 2011, jobs fully recovered in May 2014. Pandemic hit U.S. equities in late February, market recovery … Read More

Reshaping Fed Policy and Copper’s Elevated Implied Volatility By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Ending Fed Emergency Supports Fed signals earlier-than-expected exit from zero rates, tapering of asset purchases. A return to pre-pandemic norms might mean ending emergency supports. Biden administration appointments to Fed could help reshape monetary policy. Second-half … Read More

Dividend Slump and Ag Market Signals By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Investors Expect Dividends to Decline in 2020s ​​​​Investors expect dividends in real terms  to decline 15.4% by 2031. The expectations are based on a compounded inflation rate of 29.4%. Dividends grew by an inflation-adjusted 115% from 2010 to 2020. Higher bond yields and … Read More

Options in Oil and Inflation Narratives By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Oil in Backwardation ​Reopening of economies lifts WTI oil prices above $70/barrel. Oil market in backwardation, with demand expectations rallying spot prices. Options open interest rising for strike prices at $100 or higher. Could oil prices rise to $100 … Read More

Economic Rebounds and Fed “Taper Tantrum” By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Four Traits of Economic Rebounds ​​​In an economic rebound, phase transitions might be abrupt. Uneven sectoral recovery could set back employment goals. A return to pre-pandemic norms might include higher rates. Some supply-chain bottlenecks might be easing. Watch … Read More