EXCHANGE CORNER

View in your browser Why are Bonds Calm About Inflation? By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Has Quantitative Easing Distorted Treasuries Market? U.S. bonds muted even as June inflation rose to multi-year highs. Bond investors seem to share Fed view of rising inflation being transitory. Investors might feel supply chain disruptions and labor shortage … Read More

View in your browser Delta Variant Impacts Markets; Dividend Futures and Inflation By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Delta Impacts Markets, Economies Reflation trade of higher bond yields on rising inflation reversed by Delta variant. Some commodity markets, led by lumber, reverse earlier gains as variant spreads. If virus variant … Read More

Shifting Demographics and Rising Debt Levels By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Demographic Changes Realign Economic Priorities ​​​​​​Nations with young populations focus on job creation as top economic priority. Health and wealth are twin pillars of aging nations with stagnant labor force. Lack of labor force growth could lead to … Read More

Policy Responses and Outcomes to Great Recession and Pandemic By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist ,CME Group Lessons from 2008 and 2020 ​​​​​​Great Recession began September 2008, equities recovery started in March 2009. Real GDP reached pre-recession peak in Q1 2011, jobs fully recovered in May 2014. Pandemic hit U.S. equities in late February, market recovery … Read More

Reshaping Fed Policy and Copper’s Elevated Implied Volatility By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Ending Fed Emergency Supports Fed signals earlier-than-expected exit from zero rates, tapering of asset purchases. A return to pre-pandemic norms might mean ending emergency supports. Biden administration appointments to Fed could help reshape monetary policy. Second-half … Read More