EXCHANGE CORNER

Dividend Slump and Ag Market Signals By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Investors Expect Dividends to Decline in 2020s ​​​​Investors expect dividends in real terms  to decline 15.4% by 2031. The expectations are based on a compounded inflation rate of 29.4%. Dividends grew by an inflation-adjusted 115% from 2010 to 2020. Higher bond yields and … Read More

Options in Oil and Inflation Narratives By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Oil in Backwardation ​Reopening of economies lifts WTI oil prices above $70/barrel. Oil market in backwardation, with demand expectations rallying spot prices. Options open interest rising for strike prices at $100 or higher. Could oil prices rise to $100 … Read More

Economic Rebounds and Fed “Taper Tantrum” By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Four Traits of Economic Rebounds ​​​In an economic rebound, phase transitions might be abrupt. Uneven sectoral recovery could set back employment goals. A return to pre-pandemic norms might include higher rates. Some supply-chain bottlenecks might be easing. Watch … Read More

Bitcoin-Ether Dynamics and Inflation Theories By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Bitcoin’s Remarkable Journey, Correlation With Ether ​​Ether is highly correlated to and more volatile than bitcoin. When bitcoin prices rise, ether prices tend to rise even higher. Bitcoin retains first mover, incumbency advantage over cryptos. Ether has more practical … Read More

Reassessing Markets Trends and Possible Bitcoin Drivers By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Market Trends That Might Persist or Fade Some countries prepare for an evolving reopening of their economies. Markets that surged are taking a pause, while equities are more volatile. Investors reassessing market trends, could lead to increased volatility. Risk … Read More