Why Has Inflation Been So Subdued?

Why Has Inflation Been So Subdued? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights Fed rate-rise path in 2018 will depend on the pace of inflation U.S. core inflation has been subdued since 1994 Inflation expected to inch higher in 2018, nothing dramatic Fed will watch yield curve, avoid flattening it too much Read Full Article … Read More

Research: Is Resurgent Dr. Copper About to Relapse?

Is Resurgent Dr. Copper About to Relapse? By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Copper on the uptrend after recovering from 2011-2015 slump Top importer China’s return to economic growth is supportive Options signaling underlying concerns over China, surging U.S. equities China has begun tightening credit growth and has high levels of debt Read Full … Read More

Five Reasons Event Risk to Take Center Stage in 2018

Five Reasons Event Risk to Take Center Stage in 2018 By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights • Five major market challenges likely to spring from event risk in 2018 • Britain could face fresh elections, FX volatility if Brexit talks go badly • U.S. T-bonds, equities, dollar may be in play over trade, politics … Read More

Yield Curve – Unemployment Feedback Loop

The Yield Curve – Unemployment Feedback Loop By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights The yield curve has a cyclical relationship with unemployment A flat yield curve typically precedes rising unemployment Yield curve currently not signaling a recession in the near term U.S. unemployment could dip towards 3%, dependent on rate hikes Read Full Article … Read More

Q4 2017 Most-Read Economic Research

View in your browser Top 5 Articles for Q4 2017 See Readers’ Favorite Reports from Blu and Erik VIX-Yield Curve: At the Door of High Volatility? Is the United States in the mid-to-late stages of an economic cycle preceding a significant downturn? A chart series offers insight. Credit Spread-Yield Curve Cycle: All Eyes on the Fed … Read More