New prime minister set to face same Brexit challenges, pound uncertainty

New prime minister set to face same Brexit challenges, pound uncertainty By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Brexit: Pound set for volatile fall after calm summer? Options signal volatile fourth quarter for pound post-Brexit deadline Could GBP fall 15% to below 1985 low of 1.05 vs USD if Brexit … Read More

Will Rate Cut Weaken Dollar, Sustain Decade-Long Growth?

Longest US Economic Expansion; If Dollar Weakens, Who Benefits? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group If US Dollar Weakens, Who Benefits? Is US dollar’s eight-year uptrend about to come to an end? Growing trade and budget deficits, possible Fed rate cut could derail USD Could British pound, undervalued due … Read More

Call It Tariffs, but It’s Really a Tax

Call It Tariffs, but It’s Really a Tax By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights Tariffs are a tax on trade that can disrupt global growth US economic expansion likely to decelerate in H2 2019 Fed rate cuts unlikely to boost growth as rates are not the problem Negative interest rates could restrict bank lending … Read More

What will the oil market, Fed do next?

What Options Are Signaling for Oil Market, Fed Direction By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Oil: What Are Options Signaling? Is extreme negative options skewness signaling a rally in the oil market? Prices have often rallied after instances of extreme negative options skews The inverse relationship is even stronger in heating oil, ULSD gasoline But … Read More

China, Brazil and the Soybean Crush; Will Fiscal Stimulus Bolster Europe?

China, Brazil and the Soybean Crush; Will Fiscal Stimulus Bolster Europe? By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group China, Brazil and the Soybean Crush Strong Chinese growth can propel soy oil prices higher over 12 months China’s economic expansion, however, can negatively impact soy meal A fast-growing, prosperous China can boost the consumption of soy … Read More