Has Inflation Peaked; U.S. and China’s Approaches to Consumer Spending

View in your browser Has Inflation Peaked? U.S., China Consumer Spending Approaches By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist K.T. Arasu, Director of Economic Research CME Group Has Inflation Peaked? Consumer spending on durable goods is easing in switch to services As pandemic spending eases, fiscal policy is no longer a driver of inflation Fed shrinking balance … Read More

Home Rentals Might Prolong High U.S. Inflation; Spotting a Recession

View in your browser Home Rentals Could Prolong Inflation; Spotting a Recession By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, Erik Norland, Senior Economic CME Group Home Rental’s Lagging Effect on Inflation Home rental is up 5.5%, while home prices are up 21% Rise in home rentals tend to lag home prices by about 21 months As such, … Read More

Can VIX-Yield Curve Cycle Foretell Next Inflation?

View in your browser Economic Cycles and Recession; the Jobs-Growth Disconnect By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Can VIX-Yield Curve Predict Next Recession? Four stages of the VIX-Yield curve starting with economic recovery and ending with a recession This cycle has played out three times from 1990 to 2021 Can … Read More

Fixed-Income Markets Unfazed by Recession Fears; Headwinds to Long-Term Job Growth

View in your browser Fixed-Income Markets and Recession; Job Market Headwinds By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Fixed-Income Markets and Recession Fears Rising concern over recession prompts surge in Google searches for the word Fixed-income markets not indicating any major concerns over recession Yield curve has steepened but has not … Read More

Equity Risks and Signals from Copper Options

View in your browser Dividends Signal Risks to Equities; Elevated Uncertainty in Copper By Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Dividends Point to Risks in Equities Fed begins quantitative tightening, ending its massive asset purchases Investor expectations for dividends to remain stable from 2022 to 2032 By comparison, the S&P 500 has fallen from a high … Read More