Research: Could Trade Skirmishes Lead to Trade Wars?

Could Trade Skirmishes Lead to Trade Wars? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights Escalating trade tensions are a major risk to synchronized global growth The rise of trading blocs that exclude U.S. could reshape global trading patterns Trade protectionism will go beyond commerce to impact global capital flows U.S. trade policy shifts could raise the … Read More

Research: Three Things to Keep in Mind for Friday’s Employment Report

Three Things to Keep in Mind for Friday’s Employment Report By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlight Overall pace of U.S. hiring has eased to 1.4-1.6% from 2.2% in 2014 Average hourly earnings grew by 2.6% yearly since 2016 from 2% 2010 through 2015 Does Fed’s current tightening cycle reflect concern over asset prices? … Read More

Could Iran Risk Reverse Options’ Bearish Signal?

Oil: Could Iran Risk Reverse Options’ Bearish Signal? By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Oil options signaling downside risk amid surging U.S. shale supply High levels of U.S. inventories also fueling the bearishness Market sentiment could change if U.S. scraps Iran nuclear deal Escalation of Mideast geopolitical risk could spike oil-market volatility Read … Read More

Research: The Treasury Options Volatility Force Awakens

The Treasury Options Volatility Force Awakens By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Treasury options volatility stirring from quantitative easing-induced slumber Volatility could escalate amid growing budget deficit, lofty equities valuation Fed rate hikes in 2018, 2019 could further flatten yield curve, boost volatility Tight labor market unlikely to lead to runaway consumer price … Read More

Research: Fed Likely to Sidestep Trade War to Raise Rates on March 21

Fed Likely to Sidestep Trade War to Raise Rates on March 21 By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Video Highlights Federal Reserve set to raise rates at FOMC meeting on March 21 Fed to sidestep trade war concerns amid U.S. import tariffs on metals Next raise likely in June; September move could be delayed if inflation … Read More