2021: Commodity risks and China’s growth sustainability

Commodity risks and China’s growth sustainability in 2021 By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group From Inflation to Weather, Challenges for Commodities Gold market to monitor potential for inflation pressure in 2021. Copper prices likely to hinge on Chinese, global economic growth. Oil will track for signs of recovery in … Read More

Treasuries conflicted over economy and debt piles up as China recovers

Treasuries conflicted over economy and debt piles up as China recovers By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Appreciating a Conflicted Treasury Market Market sentiment in Treasuries is conflicted over the economy. Rapid economic recovery or slow, sluggish growth in 2021. Treasuries are currently priced at the mid-point of both … Read More

See the latest on potential stimulus package impacts

Impacts of potential stimulus package By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Will Fed Underwrite Another Stimulus? Fed supports additional fiscal spending despite widening budget deficit. Position is a reversal of Fed’s stance in the 1980s, 1990s. Fresh stimulus spending could raise budget deficit by up to 30% of GDP. Will Fed absorb new stimulus … Read More

Dividends lag equities, distressed debt continues to build

Dividends lag equities, distressed debt continues to build By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Dividends Stagnate Even as Equities Shine S&P 500 dividends grew 40% in 2000s, 155% in 2010s. Expectations for dividends in 2020s have slipped from up 20% to down 10%. Expectations are downcast despite equities recouping … Read More

Interest rate gaps and two competing scenarios for the economy

Interest rate gaps and two competing scenarios for the economy By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Interest Rates Gaps for the US Dollar CME FX Swap Rate Monitor measures implied interest rate differentials. US rates appeared higher in FX markets than for seven other currencies. US rates were higher … Read More