EXCHANGE CORNER

Conflicting Narratives and Widening Emerging-Developed Market Gap By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Conflicting Narratives Market volatility set to persist amid conflicting narratives. Equities weigh financial distress vs. optimism of reopening economy. Oil confronts supply cuts against drop in demand and lack of storage space. Gold likely to benefit … Read More

Economic stimulus-debt paradox; inflation to weaken with demand? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group The Economic Stimulus/Relief-Debt Paradox Budget deficits are rising globally amid surge in sovereign debt issuance. Countries spending trillions to mitigate economic impact of pandemic. Long-term interest rates have remained low despite ballooning debt. Are rising … Read More

View in your browser A New Approach to Earnings Season? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights Company earnings under greater scrutiny amid economic distortions. Traditional number crunching might misstate revenue, EPS, expenses. Developing themes and narratives might be a better analytical tool. Focus on sectors with positive cash flow, dividends, rebuilding prospects. Watch … Read More

The Currency-Commodities Nexus and Modern Monetary Theory By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group The Currency-Commodities Nexus of the Big Eight Currencies of Canada, Norway, Russia, Colombia have weakened with oil. Will cuts to oil output help offset lost demand, bolster these currencies? Russia’s low debt level, large foreign reserves … Read More

View in your browser The post-pandemic landscape and three stages of recovery By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Policy Analysis Through the Lens of Phase Transitions Three phases in getting economy back on an even keel. Supply-chain disruptions, worker layoffs mark first phase. Economy then gets back to work … Read More