Scenarios for Gold; Can Oil Sustain 2021 Rally?

View in your browser Gold’s Path Forward; Oil’s Challenges and Bright Spot By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Gold’s Path Runs Through Inflation, Fed Response Gold has been trading in a wide range from $1,700 to $1,950 the past year. Fed’s current view is that high inflation of the past … Read More

Housing Boom to be Inflationary in 2022?

View in your browser Could Housing Boom Drive Up Inflation in 2022? By Erik Norland, Senior Economist Ayushman Mukherjee, Intern CME Group Housing costs falling behind consumer price index for first time in a decade. Surge in home prices could lead to higher rent through end of 2022. Higher home rentals could add 1.5 percentage … Read More

Tapering Impact on FX, Gold; High Credit Scores Drive Housing

View in your browser Tapering Impact on FX, Gold; High Credit Scores Drive Housing By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group FX, Gold Market Volatility Could Rise With Tapering U.S. jobs recovery could slow down in second half of 2021. Fed expected to stay on course to taper asset purchases by … Read More

How Technology Keeps Inflation at Bay

View in your browser Technology Can Keep Inflation at Bay By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Scaling Up Business Without Raising Output Costs Price hikes due to supply chain bottlenecks could ease in 12-18 months. Technology can help in boosting supply without raising production costs. Output cost could even fall as companies scale up … Read More

Will EUR/USD Volatility Snap Back?

Will EUR/USD Volatility Snap Back? By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group EURUSD Volatility Has Declined Sharply 30-day EUR/USD options implied volatility in 2021 is down sharply to 5%-6%. Implied volatility ranged from 5%-10% past few years, and 10%-15% before 2016. U.S. and eurozone budget deficits, inflation rates have diverged since pandemic. Widely traded EUR/USD … Read More