Research: Three Things to Keep in Mind for Friday’s Employment Report

Three Things to Keep in Mind for Friday’s Employment Report By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlight Overall pace of U.S. hiring has eased to 1.4-1.6% from 2.2% in 2014 Average hourly earnings grew by 2.6% yearly since 2016 from 2% 2010 through 2015 Does Fed’s current tightening cycle reflect concern over asset prices? … Read More

Could Iran Risk Reverse Options’ Bearish Signal?

Oil: Could Iran Risk Reverse Options’ Bearish Signal? By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Oil options signaling downside risk amid surging U.S. shale supply High levels of U.S. inventories also fueling the bearishness Market sentiment could change if U.S. scraps Iran nuclear deal Escalation of Mideast geopolitical risk could spike oil-market volatility Read … Read More

Research: The Treasury Options Volatility Force Awakens

The Treasury Options Volatility Force Awakens By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Treasury options volatility stirring from quantitative easing-induced slumber Volatility could escalate amid growing budget deficit, lofty equities valuation Fed rate hikes in 2018, 2019 could further flatten yield curve, boost volatility Tight labor market unlikely to lead to runaway consumer price … Read More

Research: Fed Likely to Sidestep Trade War to Raise Rates on March 21

Fed Likely to Sidestep Trade War to Raise Rates on March 21 By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Video Highlights Federal Reserve set to raise rates at FOMC meeting on March 21 Fed to sidestep trade war concerns amid U.S. import tariffs on metals Next raise likely in June; September move could be delayed if inflation … Read More

China’s Li Keqiang Index: Headwinds for Commodities, Currencies?

China’s Li Keqiang Index: Headwinds for Commodities, Currencies? By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Li Keqiang index holds more sway over investors than official China GDP Index reflects flattening of China’s yield curve unlike official Q4 2017 GDP Might be signaling a return of the 2011-2016 commodities bear market Further slowing of Chinese … Read More