La Niña: Calm Before the Storm in Ag Markets?

La Niña: Calm Before the Storm in Ag Markets? By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Ag options’ implied volatility remains exceptionally low despite La Niña Could be due to decline in U.S. status as predominant global grain exporter Economic conditions could temper impact of La Niña as in 2009, 2010 La Niña might … Read More

Research: Could Equities Jitters Affect Pace of Fed Rate Hikes?

Could Equities Jitters Affect Pace of Fed Rate Hikes? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights CME FedWatch tool shows high probability of a rate hike in March But Fed could defer until June if correction in equities is prolonged A September hike possible if core inflation tops two percent by August CME FedWatch Tool View … Read More

Research: Three Least Likely FOMC Meetings to Hike Rates

Three Least Likely FOMC Meetings to Hike Rates By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights FOMC least likely to hike rates in May, August and November Tightening most likely to come in March, June and December If equity correction deepens into March, Fed will likely wait until June Core inflation above 2% by August could trigger … Read More

Gold: Showing Strength Despite Rate-Hike Signals

Gold: Showing Strength Despite Rate-Hike Signals By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Gold’s rally from December lows weakens correlation with Fed Fund futures Gold bull market possible if rate hikes fall short of market expectations Dollar could drop further if markets scale back rate-hike expectations If inflation rises, beneficial to have gold in investment … Read More

La Niña: Grain Options’ Implied Volatility Languishes

La Niña: Grain Options’ Implied Volatility Languishes By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Video Highlights Corn, Soybean options’ implied volatility languishes despite La Niña La Niña can elevate grain volatility, has historically been bearish Rise of non-U.S. grain producers could be limiting volatility Connect to Agricultural Products on LinkedIn Stay up to date on … Read More