Research: Three Least Likely FOMC Meetings to Hike Rates

Three Least Likely FOMC Meetings to Hike Rates By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights FOMC least likely to hike rates in May, August and November Tightening most likely to come in March, June and December If equity correction deepens into March, Fed will likely wait until June Core inflation above 2% by August could trigger … Read More

Gold: Showing Strength Despite Rate-Hike Signals

Gold: Showing Strength Despite Rate-Hike Signals By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Gold’s rally from December lows weakens correlation with Fed Fund futures Gold bull market possible if rate hikes fall short of market expectations Dollar could drop further if markets scale back rate-hike expectations If inflation rises, beneficial to have gold in investment … Read More

La Niña: Grain Options’ Implied Volatility Languishes

La Niña: Grain Options’ Implied Volatility Languishes By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Video Highlights Corn, Soybean options’ implied volatility languishes despite La Niña La Niña can elevate grain volatility, has historically been bearish Rise of non-U.S. grain producers could be limiting volatility Connect to Agricultural Products on LinkedIn Stay up to date on … Read More

Why Has Inflation Been So Subdued?

Why Has Inflation Been So Subdued? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights Fed rate-rise path in 2018 will depend on the pace of inflation U.S. core inflation has been subdued since 1994 Inflation expected to inch higher in 2018, nothing dramatic Fed will watch yield curve, avoid flattening it too much Read Full Article … Read More

Research: Is Resurgent Dr. Copper About to Relapse?

Is Resurgent Dr. Copper About to Relapse? By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Copper on the uptrend after recovering from 2011-2015 slump Top importer China’s return to economic growth is supportive Options signaling underlying concerns over China, surging U.S. equities China has begun tightening credit growth and has high levels of debt Read Full … Read More