Yield Curve – Unemployment Feedback Loop

The Yield Curve – Unemployment Feedback Loop By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights The yield curve has a cyclical relationship with unemployment A flat yield curve typically precedes rising unemployment Yield curve currently not signaling a recession in the near term U.S. unemployment could dip towards 3%, dependent on rate hikes Read Full Article … Read More

Q4 2017 Most-Read Economic Research

View in your browser Top 5 Articles for Q4 2017 See Readers’ Favorite Reports from Blu and Erik VIX-Yield Curve: At the Door of High Volatility? Is the United States in the mid-to-late stages of an economic cycle preceding a significant downturn? A chart series offers insight. Credit Spread-Yield Curve Cycle: All Eyes on the Fed … Read More

Bitcoin: Birth of the World’s First “Teal” Equity?

Bitcoin: World’s First “Teal” Equity By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Bitcoin characteristics resemble equities, currencies and commodities Any collapse in bitcoin currently poses no threat to global growth or stability Policy makers may issue their own cryptocurrencies using blockchain technology Bitcoin helping incentivize creation of a powerful new generation of computers Read Full … Read More

Credit Spread-Yield Curve Cycle: All Eyes on the Fed in 2018 & Beyond

Credit Spread-Yield Curve Cycle: All Eyes on the Fed in 2018 & Beyond By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights U.S. in the mid-to-late stage of expansion post Great Recession Fed ‘dot plot’ tightening pace could flatten yield curve, widen credit spreads Could lead U.S. economy into a recession around 2020 or 2021 Slower pace … Read More

Bitcoin: Will Stunning Rally Sustain or Sour in 2018?

Bitcoin: Will Stunning Rally Sustain or Sour in 2018? By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Growth in bitcoin supply has slowed after first four years The computational difficulty in mining bitcoin rises with prices Transaction costs are rising, like before the 2010, 2013 price crash Is bitcoin market mature enough to weather the spike … Read More