Italy, Germany Sunday Event Risk: Market Impact

View in your browser Italy, Germany Sunday Event Risk: Market Impact By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Italian election outcome on Sunday could impact euro, Brexit talks Most options traders expecting downside risk to euro An outright center-right parliamentary majority could spark euro relief rally Verdict on Angela Merkel’s grand German coalition also … Read More

Research: What Are Ag Options Traders ‘Smiling’ About?

What Are Ag Options Traders ‘Smiling’ About? By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Out-of-the-money (OTM) call options for grains signal fear of prices rising OTM premiums for calls top those for puts despite abundant global supplies Tighter credit controls in China could pose a downside risk for prices Read Full Article Connect to … Read More

Research: Anatomy of an Equities Correction

Anatomy of an Equities Correction By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights Bond market concerned with rising U.S. budget deficits, inflation Spike in volatility expected if equities bull market gets back on track Fed rate hikes in March and June highly likely amid rising inflation Where’s the Noteworthy Options Activity Happening? Gain insight into market sentiment … Read More

La Niña: Calm Before the Storm in Ag Markets?

La Niña: Calm Before the Storm in Ag Markets? By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Ag options’ implied volatility remains exceptionally low despite La Niña Could be due to decline in U.S. status as predominant global grain exporter Economic conditions could temper impact of La Niña as in 2009, 2010 La Niña might … Read More

Research: Could Equities Jitters Affect Pace of Fed Rate Hikes?

Could Equities Jitters Affect Pace of Fed Rate Hikes? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights CME FedWatch tool shows high probability of a rate hike in March But Fed could defer until June if correction in equities is prolonged A September hike possible if core inflation tops two percent by August CME FedWatch Tool View … Read More