EXCHANGE CORNER

View in your browser Impact of Balance Sheet Shrinkage By Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Balance Sheet Shrinkage and Market Volatility Fed balance sheet has grown by almost 90% to nearly $9 trillion since pandemic Unwinding of Fed asset purchases to be followed by shrinking of balance sheet Equity index options trended higher during … Read More

Fragile Economic Outlook; Fed Rate Hikes and Investor Expectations By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Fragile Outlook for Economy in 2022 Global growth, led by the U.S. and China, may slow more rapidly than currently expected China’s engine of economic growth is slowing.  Expect increased volatility in energy to agriculture to … Read More

Geopolitical Tensions Reverberate in Wheat; La Niña Returns to Ag Markets By Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Geopolitical Tensions Underpin Black Sea Wheat Prices for Black Sea wheat have fallen less than U.S., Australian wheat since November Ukraine/Russian wheat exports are three times higher than comparable U.S. wheat Investors monitoring possibilities of supply disruption amid … Read More

View in your browser Yield Curve Scenarios if Rates Rise By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist CME Group Will Yield Curve Steepen or Flatten if Rates Rise? Supply chain disruptions and demand shift from services to goods lifted inflation above 6% Shape of yield curve likely to shift relative to Fed raising short-term rates, level of … Read More

View in your browser Did Demand or Supply Lift Inflation?; Clean Energy Demand Buoys Cobalt By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist Erik Norland, Senior Economist CME Group Did Demand or Supply Fuel Inflation? Supply and demand affected in unusual, atypical ways during pandemic Demand impacted by relief payments, consumers’ shift to manufactured goods Did relief payments … Read More