Research: The Treasury Options Volatility Force Awakens

The Treasury Options Volatility Force Awakens By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Treasury options volatility stirring from quantitative easing-induced slumber Volatility could escalate amid growing budget deficit, lofty equities valuation Fed rate hikes in 2018, 2019 could further flatten yield curve, boost volatility Tight labor market unlikely to lead to runaway consumer price … Read More

Research: Fed Likely to Sidestep Trade War to Raise Rates on March 21

Fed Likely to Sidestep Trade War to Raise Rates on March 21 By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Video Highlights Federal Reserve set to raise rates at FOMC meeting on March 21 Fed to sidestep trade war concerns amid U.S. import tariffs on metals Next raise likely in June; September move could be delayed if inflation … Read More

China’s Li Keqiang Index: Headwinds for Commodities, Currencies?

China’s Li Keqiang Index: Headwinds for Commodities, Currencies? By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Li Keqiang index holds more sway over investors than official China GDP Index reflects flattening of China’s yield curve unlike official Q4 2017 GDP Might be signaling a return of the 2011-2016 commodities bear market Further slowing of Chinese … Read More

Crude Oil’s Next Move? Clues from Soybean Oil

View in your browser Crude Oil’s Next Move? Clues from Soybean Oil By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Soybean oil prices tend to forerun WTI Crude Oil futures Trend has been evident nearly every year since 2005 through peaks and troughs Soybean oil’s lack of a sustained recovery may be a bearish signal … Read More

Research: Markets React to Trade Tensions, Cohn’s White House Resignation

Markets React to Trade Tensions, Cohn’s White House Resignation By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Video Highlights Equities trying to price collateral damage from a possible trade war U.S. likely to withdraw from NAFTA pact with Canada and Mexico in Q2 Trans-Pacific trade bloc without U.S. could impact dollar, but not GDP Manage Stock Market Risk … Read More