ANNOUNCEMENTS

Treasuries conflicted over economy and debt piles up as China recovers By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Appreciating a Conflicted Treasury Market Market sentiment in Treasuries is conflicted over the economy. Rapid economic recovery or slow, sluggish growth in 2021. Treasuries are currently priced at the mid-point of both … Read More

Impacts of potential stimulus package By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Will Fed Underwrite Another Stimulus? Fed supports additional fiscal spending despite widening budget deficit. Position is a reversal of Fed’s stance in the 1980s, 1990s. Fresh stimulus spending could raise budget deficit by up to 30% of GDP. Will Fed absorb new stimulus … Read More

Dividends lag equities, distressed debt continues to build By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Dividends Stagnate Even as Equities Shine S&P 500 dividends grew 40% in 2000s, 155% in 2010s. Expectations for dividends in 2020s have slipped from up 20% to down 10%. Expectations are downcast despite equities recouping … Read More

Interest rate gaps and two competing scenarios for the economy By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Interest Rates Gaps for the US Dollar CME FX Swap Rate Monitor measures implied interest rate differentials. US rates appeared higher in FX markets than for seven other currencies. US rates were higher … Read More

China’s economy rebounds and interest rate differentials By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group China’s Economy Rebounds, Yuan Strengthens China’s economy rebounds from pandemic fallout. Chinese yuan has rallied against the US dollar. New loans for infrastructure projects fuel the comeback. Chinese demand has helped to rally copper. Watch video … Read More