Research: Fed Focus on More Unwinding, Monetary Policy

Focus on the Fed: More QE Unwinding, Monetary Policy Moves By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Fed Unwinding the Bernanke Experiments: Progress Report Highlights Fed may aim for balance sheet to be 10%-12% of GDP by 2022-2023 Likely to steer effective funds rate to be at par or slightly above core … Read More

Volatility Returns: Phase Transition in Equities

Volatility Returns: Phase Transition in Equities By Jesy Beeson, Director of Business Intelligence & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights Equity market volatility makes a comeback in early 2018 Market depth dipped but liquidity robust enough to execute trades, manage risk No long-term impact on market depth expected even from extreme volatility Open interest … Read More

How the Market Dynamics Have Changed

Oil: How the Market Dynamics Have Changed By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Highlights Faster pace of global growth, Mideast risk premium fuel gains in oil prices Shale oil well placed to boost output in H2 2018 and 2019 as prices head higher Various drilling challenges, however, might slow pace of production ramp-up U.S. oil exports … Read More

High Consumer Confidence: Cause for Concern or Celebration?

High Consumer Confidence: Cause for Concern or Celebration? By Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group Highlights U.S. consumer confidence is buoyant, highest since 2000 Happy consumers no guarantee of strong returns from equities Stock market fell after consumer confidence peaked in 1968, 2000 Equities rewarded investors after worst periods of consumer confidence Read Full Article … Read More

Research: Why U.S. Dollar is Lagging Euro, Yen Despite Higher Rates?

Why U.S. Dollar is Lagging Euro, Yen Despite Higher Rates? By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist, CME Group Video Highlights Equities trying to price collateral damage from a possible trade war U.S. likely to withdraw from NAFTA pact with Canada and Mexico in Q2 Trans-Pacific trade bloc without U.S. could impact dollar, but not GDP Connect to FX … Read More